Us global change research program climate science special report

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us global change research program climate science special report

Fourth National Climate Assessment - Volume I: Climate Science Special Report by U.S. Global Change Research Program

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I decided to print this book because I believe this is probably one of the most important books of the 21st Century. It is important because it foretells the future of the entire planet. This is a book that cannot be ignored. This book contains much of the source data for Volume II.


You could stick your head in the sand and pretend climate change is not real, but this book explains the science behind what is happening and clearly documents what should otherwise be obvious. The weather is getting worse, and the sea level will rise. Typically, whatever happens in the U.S. happens in California first. That said, we can expect wildfires in parts of the country not known for wildfires and flooding everywhere along the coasts. In our books “Sea Level Rise Maps” we show where coastal flooding will begin starting as early as the year 2030. We can expect to lose more than fancy beach houses. At least 30 major airports in cities like Boston, New York’s JFK and LaGuardia, Newark, Philadelphia, Miami, San Diego and San Francisco will all be completely underwater by the year 2100 – and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Even if we reduce our carbon footprint to zero today, the process has already begun.

Kindle allows you to do word search and Page Flip (temporary place holder takes you back when you want to go back.


Table of Contents

Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate ..............................................................................................................35

2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ........................................................................................................73

3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .....................................................................................114

4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .........................................................................................133

5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ..................................................................................161

6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...........................................................................................185

7. Precipitation Change in the United States ............................................................................................207

8. Droughts, Floods, and Wildires .............................................................................................................231

9. Extreme Storms .........................................................................................................................................257

10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ..................................................................277

11. Arctic Changes and their Efects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States ...............................303

12. Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................................................333

13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes ...................................................................................364

14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation ........................................................................................393

15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements ....................................................411
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Published 14.12.2018

2017 Fall Meeting - U23A: Climate Science Special Report

Chapter 4: Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections

If greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized at their current level, existing concentrations would commit the world to at least an additional 1. Over the next two decades, global temperature increase is projected to be between 0. This range is primarily due to uncertainties in natural sources of variability that affect short-term trends. In some regions, this means that the trend may not be distinguishable from natural variability high confidence. Beyond the next few decades, the magnitude of climate change depends primarily on cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the sensitivity of the climate system to those emissions high confidence. Projected changes range from 4. Global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide CO 2 concentration has now passed ppm, a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today high confidence.

Volume II focuses on the human welfare, societal, and environmental elements of climate change and variability for 10 regions and 18 national topics, with particular attention paid to observed and projected risks, impacts, consideration of risk reduction, and implications under different mitigation pathways. Where possible, NCA4 Volume II provides examples of actions underway in communities across the United States to reduce the risks associated with climate change, increase resilience, and improve livelihoods. This assessment was written to help inform decision-makers, utility and natural resource managers, public health officials, emergency planners, and other stakeholders by providing a thorough examination of the effects of climate change on the United States. View document [ext. View report-in-brief [ext. View report-in-brief Spanish [ext.

This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus It represents the first of two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the Global Change Research Act of Ch. 6: Temperature Changes in the United States U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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Executive Summary

Fahey, K. Hibbard, B. DeAngelo, S. Doherty, K. Hayhoe, R.

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